Inflation Evaluation Essays - Inflation, Monetary Policy

Inflation Evaluation Today it is almost impossible to pick up a financial journal without seeing news on the bull market that some consider to be overvalued. Overvalued or fairly valued, only the future will show the truth. Either way, this market is one that has shown greater run ups and returns, than any other market in history. (Reference Appendix #1a) Recently the Dow Jones Industrial Average has reached historical highs and then receded back to previous levels, leaving investors who are used to consistent and record setting gains month after month, baffled. Both the Dow Jones and the S & P 500 indices have seen modest and even flat performances over the past three months. (Reference #1b) A recent article that was published on the front page of the Wall Street Journal emphasized that returns were flat due to the fact that investors were concerned of the possible on set of inflation. If these concerns are warranted and inflation is thus expected, the Bull market may very well be over. This after all makes sense, inflation has slowed and stopped many run-ups in the past, and the onset of inflation now could very well do the same. While the article introduced some possibilities, it said nothing of the likelihood, the causes of, the Fed.'s reactions to, and the probability of expected inflationary increases in the future. This paper is thus dedicated to expanding on these ideas by exploring the rationality of these concerns by examining the circumstances surrounding inflation. It is my speculation that the Bull market may eventually correct itself in the future, but not in the short term due to immediate inflation. That is, that the market was in fact flat due investors concerns, but actual imperative inflation does not look to be expected in the near future. In order to begin to understand the nature of market trends and forces, one must first consider the current state of the U.S. economy relative to its' business cycle. Certain aggregates can be measured that tell us a great deal about this. These aggregates have a strong history of leading, coinciding, or lagging the relative business cycle with a high amount of regular correlation. Appendix 2a contains illustrations, which show graphically the trends of the leading, lagging, and coincident indicators over the past few years. These graphs are composites of each group, and upon examination it is clear that all the indicators are rising. In fact the composite index of leading indicators shows that they have not experienced a significant downturn since the early 1980's, and have been increasing rather sharply over the past 3 years. The fact that all of these indicators are currently rising indicate that the economy is in a period of robust growth, or an expansionary phase. The fruits of this expansion have proven to be many, however it is often said that too much of a good thing can be bad. In this regard there are factors associated with the degree and nature of this economy, which could cause slowdown. For example, how is inflation measured, and to what degree should we be concerned with the effects and attributes of cost- push and demand- pull sources of inflation in this robust economy? According the Baye and Jansen, inflation can be measured by considering the growth of the money supply, the growth of M velocity, and the growth of real output. Algebraically this is represented by the equation: inflation = (gm + gv) - gy. This equation thus considers the monetary, supply-push, and demand-pull factors. When the rate of inflation is measured in this way one can see, that over the last few years inflation has been relatively stable about its' trend. This is in part, a result of the steady growth of GDP over the same period, and is testimony to the success of the Federal Reserve Board's monetary and fiscal policies. The rates of inflation over the last 10 years are graphically illustrated in Appendix 3A. Cost-push inflation incurs when the prices of inputs for production increase and thus cause profit margins to diminish. If firms are unwilling or unable to accept the declination in operating income, they will pass these increases on to consumers in the form of increased prices. In a competitive market it would seem that firms would be unable to raise prices, unless there was uniform pressure affecting the aggregate whole of suppliers. (Examples include per unit costs of production, labor costs, energy prices, etc..) Both the dollar cost per person per hour, and the output per person have been

Truman Capote Essays

Truman Capote Essays Truman Capote Essay Truman Capote Essay fuelling the fire of this statement Capote was unable to watch Smith be hanged after Hickock, even departing from the building overcome with grief. Already it would appear that perhaps the sympathy that Capote attributed to Smith through his novel was for that of someone he not only related to in sense of misgivings throughout his life, through a sense of being hard done by at every turn with the world against them, but conceivably because of a relationship developed through such misgivings and empathetic feelings that Capote developed towards Smith due to totally understanding his situation and perhaps feeling that in another life he could well have been in his very same position had events gone differently. From the very start of the novel when we first meet Perry Smith he forms the central character of the book. Capote is most interested in the trajectory of Smiths life toward the final, fatal deed, in which he murders the entire clutter family with Hickock, and the people, events, and conditions that shape his course. The problem of whether Smith is condemned from the beginning, or whether perhaps, as Willie Jay ,the chaplains clerk, believed, there was something savable about him, is answered by Capote through his inclusion of letters and sketches written by Smith and others who knew him, who confirm his vicious, off the wall, temper and his yet his dormant sensitivity. Capote purposefully makes clear that Smith is, as Helen Garson illustrated in her book Truman Capote, a strange, psychopathic mixture of vicious killer and compassionate protector which in itself presents a total contrast in emotions, actions and personalities. The idea that Smith is this cold blooded killer but at the same has a very compassionate side is portrayed with rigid regularity by capote with examples being when he placed a pillow under Kenyons (the Clutter boy) head, after performing the ultimate sin, a mattress box under Herb Clutters body, and even somewhat audaciously tucked Bonnie and Nancy Clutter into their beds after tying them. In addition in the book Garson also says how Capote, as narrator, concurs with the observation of psychiatrists he quotes that Smith, in the murder of Herb Clutter, was most likely exacting retribution on a key figure in some past traumatic configuration., even Perry Smith confesses, Maybe its just that the Clutters were the unlucky soles who had to pay for it, the proverbial it in this case being the life that Smith had to endure. Smiths desire for revenge against his abusers is rendered not only understandable but acceptable. In wiping out the Clutters, Smith is extinguishing not only the image and reality of all that he was denied, but the most respectable figures in an emblematically close-knit, vindictive community. Hickock and Smith originally went to prison for petty theft, an unfortunate circumstance that affected in entirety the rest of their lives. The degree of Smith and Hickocks indifference is seen when Hickock turns sharply to hit a dog, instead of simply pass it by, and when Smith explains that he thought Herb Clutter was a very decent, nice man, right up until the moment I cut his throat. Hickock does in fact improve his petty criminal behavior, developing a talent for passing bad checks, bedding married women, and passing in the world of decent humanity, while Smith develops an inconsistent aversion to drinking, indiscriminate sex, and unnecessary theft, although he is gripped with a desire to travel that prevents his commitment to anything that might resemble home or family. Once they had fallen off the generic, automated mechanism of upward mobility toward the american dream, the barriers to re-entry were too high to scale again, and, Capote implies, not interesting to Smith and Hickock. In this Capote is somewhat giving the American society and culture a bashing and using it as a scapegoat for crimes that many would have seen unforgivable. The American dream says anyone can be anything they desire, but all too often it is the ones that fall by the wayside that are more accountable than ones that reach prosperity. In the novel Capote includes letters written by Smiths family, the psychiatrist and befriended chaplains clerk, Willie Jay, which detail Smiths entire life and mental state. Smith is seen from these as a human with genuine intelligence and having a real sense of empathy and social integrity; however over time it has been warped into something quite undistinguishable through his traumatic life. As far as his family life went his mother died of alcoholism at a young age after choking on her sick, his brother and sister later committed suicide and another one of smiths sisters disowned him, never to want contact again (even when news of his execution reaches him she shows no real compassion) . Smith never got a formal education due to moving house regularly with his father, despite this he taught himself to play the guitar and to paint. He often read to increase his vocabulary and was very keen on making something of himself as a young man. During his youth he reads constantly and, being a bit of a prude, avoids vulgar literature and materials. In prison, he paints a portrait of Jesus for the prison chaplain, which leads Reverend Post to believe that Smith cannot be all that bad. Capotes recounting of Smiths childhood and family life begs the question whether Smiths crimes stem from inherent criminal tendencies, or whether he is pushed onto that path through circumstances beyond his control and with this he wants the reader to sympathise with Smith, showing that perhaps if the young man had been afforded the time, and upbringing he deserved then he could have been something very important to the world. This is all put to shame by the fact that murder cannot be forgiven, ho wever, in the circumstances of which Capote paints Smiths upbringing it becomes ever more clear and easier to understand why exactly it is he feels such sympathy for the man and why he paints him in such a positive light. In the novel moments before his death Smith turns to the warden and repents, It would be meaningless to apologize for what I did. Even inappropriate. But I do. I apologize. This is a clear indication perhaps of the man having a conscience, although we see rare glimpses of it thorough I think Capote put this in to leave the final feeling before the execution of his favorite character as one of sympathy on the level that he himself felt towards Smith. The idea that a hardened criminal would apologise and repent is somewhat unlikely and as a result the inclusion of such an act presents Perry Smith not in the light of a criminal but in virginal innocence (at one extreme) as it would seem to onlookers who knew his whole story (like Capote) that he, despite everything he went through, did in fact feel guilt for his actions and perhaps had given up on life too early. To reiterate, Capote argues, none too subtly, that Smith had considerable potential for a productive life had he not been abused and cast out throughout his life. In noting his sympathies for Smith, it is clear that Capote identifies and empathizes with Smith personally. But Capotes questioning of the relevance and righteousness of small-town values and priorities could be his own angry criticism of the world he himself inhabited: a false meritocracy in which his talents were inadequate unless accompanied by a biting, unrelenting charm. Capote depicts the hypocrisy of Smith and Hickocks trial and execution with similar precision; murder by an individual was illegitimate, but murder by the state was an accepted, even necessary means of satisfying a sense of reckoning and restoring order. The book is at the end of the day a criticism of societys handling of its children and its unwillingness to forgive those outside the boundaries of acceptable definition. Capotes portrayal of Smith as the victim of a self-righteous society reveals his own rejection of conformity and his identification with the antagonist anti-hero. Smiths chief fault, Capote believes, is not being a criminal, but attempting to transform the course set by childhood trauma and familial abuse and resist the depiction of himself by others. If Smith is not mentally ill, Capote believes that he has undeveloped violent tendencies, like everyone, which were fed a steady diet by a history of humiliating experiences. Capotes indifference to the sedate, predictable life of the Clutters supports his sympathetic portrayal of Smith. He does not valorise Smith or glorify the Clutters, but he endorses Smiths attempts to escape the stock characterization of problem child, juvenile delinquent, and finally, career crim inal. He does not similarly endorse the Clutters existence: Herb Clutter is a two-dimensional Everyman, icon of the American dream and the Puritan work ethic. To conclude, Capotes identification with Smith exists on several levels. He empathises with Smiths desire to escape his broken family history, to leave behind his horrific roots, and to enter and be accepted in a different social sphere. Capote, like Smith, came from a broken home, had no mother, and longed for celebrity status, or at least to be known. He did not complete his education, barely finishing high school, while Smith left school after the third grade. At the end of his life, Capote had been inducted into the world of fame and high society, but it was a false world of celebrities in which he was only a trophy, fashionable but marginal, and he was ultimately expelled from it for gossiping about them in print. In a sense, his celebrity seemed to make him even more sympathetic to the killers: why should he, also the product of a broken home, an outcast, without a complete formal education, run in such inflated circles while Smith did not? To say that it is inappropriate to sy mpathise with such a person, being a multiple killer though he is, is in the case somewhat understandable. Capote tries to engross the reader into a world far from that which most will have been a part of, but yet a world that exists perhaps almost behind closed doors. He led a hard life, not too dissimilar to Smith and yet he flourished, it shows that one choice or one circumstance can change who we are at any stage, and I think, like I said early, in another life Capote sees himself as being Perry Smith, so he feels empathy towards the man who he construes as potentially himself in a parallel existence.